Sunday, August 19, 2012

2012 Adjusted Preseason AP Poll

    Yesterday, the AP came out with their preseason poll. They chose USC as their number one pick. Preseason polls haven't done a very good job at predicting the future. There are numerous factors that change up in the course of the season. Nobody knows every detail of every team in college football at this point. The poll becomes a beauty contest. There are some teams that are consistently over-ranked and other teams that are consistently under-ranked.

    I happened to find this gem of a site to find that Oregon leads college teams as the most under-ranked team since 1989 after reading this Oregon Live article. Notre Dame is the most over-rated team since 1989. What if we took the data from that website and factor them into this year's AP poll?

    The data from the stassen website gives a positive or negative number which represents how close the AP is at guessing a team's rank over the past 23 years. I can't just divide that number by 23, because not every team has been ranked each year. So I've averaged out the numbers individually according to how many years each team has had a rank value. I factored in the first 30 teams in the AP Poll and will now share with you the top 20. I wonder which list will be more accurate at the end of the season.

Adjusted AP Team AP Poll
1 Oregon 5
2 Alabama 2
3 South Carolina 9
4 USC 1
5 LSU 3
6 Georgia 6
7 Arkansas 10
8 Oklahoma 4
9 Wisconsin 12
10 Florida State 7
11 Michigan 8
12 West Virginia 11
13 TCU 20
14 Virginia Tech 16
15 Boise State 24
16 Oklahoma State 19
17 Utah 30
18 Clemson 14
19 Stanford 21
20 Kansas State 22

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