Sunday, August 18, 2013

Stassen-Adjusted AP Poll Has Stanford and Oregon On Top in 2013

    Last season we tried an experiment using data from Stassen.com that adjusted the preseason AP poll with the average position each team has been over or under rated for the past 20 years.  The result ended up being a list that was just as inaccurate as the actual preseason AP poll (although it did pick Oregon and Alabama to finish #1 and #2, just backwards).  Perceptions drift over the years and 20 years might have been going too far.  So this year we are going to adjust the experiment and only consider the trend for the previous four years (2009 - 2012).

    The formula is simple.  Using the data provided by Stassen, we arrive at a positive or negative number for each team.  A negative trend number represents the average positions a team has been underrated the previous four seasons.  A positive trend number indicates the average number of spots a team has been over-ranked.  Simply add the 2013 AP poll positions with the Trend and you get the following Stassen-Adjusted AP Poll:

  
Rank
Team (AP) Trend AP + Trend
1
Stanford (4) -8.75 -4.75
2
Oregon (3) -3.25 -0.25
3
Alabama (1) 0.5 1.5
4
Ohio State (2) 1.25 3.25
5
South Carolina (6) -1.75 4.25
6
Clemson (8) -3.5 4.5
7
Louisville (9) -3.25 5.75
8
Georgia (5) 4.25 9.25
9
Texas A&M (7) 2.83 9.83
10
LSU (12) 1.13 13.13
11
Florida (10) 4 14
12
Oklahoma State (13) 1.88 14.88
12
Notre Dame (14) 0.88 14.88
14
TCU (20) -3.5 16.5
15
Boise State (19) -2.25 16.75
16
Michigan (17) 0.5 17.5
17
Florida State (11) 7 18
18
Northwestern (22) -2.25 19.75
19
UCLA (21) 0 21
20
Texas (15) 7.5 22.5
20
Nebraska (18) 4.5 22.5
20
Wisconsin (23) -0.5 22.5
23
Michigan State (26) -2.75 23.25
24
Baylor (27) -3.25 23.75
25
Oregon State (25) -0.75 24.25

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